Dr. Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney · Jan 21

Indian Air Force chief A.P. Singh, in a speech today, said: “Whether it is evacuating civilians from conflict zones, as we did in Sudan; or whether striking terrorist infrastructure and its perpetrators; or whether hitting multiple bases in Pakistan within a matter of hours to send a message that enough is enough and bring them to their knees, it was air power that proved decisive. That is a fact that must be remembered.” History, however, will also remember that just as India gained the upper hand through devastating airstrikes, New Delhi abruptly agreed to an immediate ceasefire. The cessation of hostilities just three days into the Indian operation helped revive Pakistan’s international image, especially in the Islamic world. It was widely seen as having held its own against a more powerful adversary. That perception proved consequential, helping spawn the Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact, which could now become trilateral with Turkey’s inclusion. At home, the Pakistani military, despite suffering significant blows in the brief conflict, succeeded not only in rehabilitating its damaged standing but also in staging a constitutional coup, with the army chief consolidating absolute power legally. U.S.-India relations, meanwhile, deteriorated sharply. In short, while the Indian operation may have been a tactical or military success, it amounted to a diplomatic and political failure.